Aetram Research India

FMCG Bears Dominate Below 48,030; Recovery Beyond 48,100 Could Ease Pressure, While 47,300 Failure Risks 47,000 - 22.08.2026

Aetram Research India - NIFTY FMCG Weekly Sector Outlook

Aetram Research India - Nifty FMCG - Weekly Sector Outlook

FMCG Bears Dominate Below 48,030; Recovery Beyond 48,100 Could Ease Pressure, While 47,300 Failure Risks 47,000 - 22.08.2026

Current Market Price: 47,510.95

Market Prediction

Nifty FMCG remains structurally weak below all major moving averages after an extended decline. RSI at 38.67 reflects subdued momentum, while ADX at 35.45 confirms meaningful directional pressure. Holding 47,300 may support stabilisation, but sustained recovery requires 48,100; below 47,300, weakness could revisit 47,000 and 46,750 over coming sessions gradually.

Upcoming Events

Positive Catalyst: Favourable monsoon conditions and improving rural demand could support consumption-oriented companies.
Negative Catalyst: Higher palm oil, packaging and transportation costs may pressure operating margins.
Positive/Negative Catalyst: Inflation data, consumer demand trends and company pricing decisions could influence sector sentiment.

Major Support and Resistance

Support: 47,300, 47,000, 46,750
Resistance: 48,030, 48,100, 48,500

Volume Analysis

Volume remains light near 5.34 million despite the sharp sector decline, suggesting selling pressure has not reached capitulation intensity. Recovery needs broader participation; otherwise, low-volume rebounds beneath 48,100 may remain vulnerable to renewed supply pressure.

Final Take Away

FMCG remains firmly corrective, with price below every monitored average and ADX confirming persistent weakness. Defending 47,300 may allow stabilisation, but only a recovery above 48,100 would materially improve the near-term structure and momentum profile.

Next Week Prediction

Next week, FMCG may remain defensive below 48,100; holding 47,300 could encourage base formation, while persistent weakness risks a slide toward 46,750 before meaningful recovery.

Scenario-Based Outlook

Bullish Scenario: Above 48,100, price may move toward the 48,500–48,850 zone.
Bearish Scenario: Below 47,300, downside risk toward the 47,000–46,750 zone.
Neutral Scenario: Between 47,300–48,100, consolidation likely.

Disclaimer: This research report is for informational purposes only. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is no guarantee of returns. Investments in securities are subject to market risks including loss of capital. Investors should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Nifty Auto Bears Hold Near-Term Edge Below 29,260; Strength Above 29,350 May Revive Recovery, While 28,950 Failure Risks 28,700 - 22.08.2026

Aetram Research India - Nifty Auto - Weekly Sector Outlook

Nifty Auto Bears Hold Near-Term Edge Below 29,260; Strength Above 29,350 May Revive Recovery, While 28,950 Failure Risks 28,700 - 22.08.2026

Current Market Price: 29,124.60

Market Prediction

Nifty Auto is consolidating below the short-term average after losing momentum near recent highs, although broader supports remain intact. RSI at 41.22 and negative MACD reflect subdued demand, while ADX at 14.63 signals weak directional conviction. Recovery requires 29,350; below 28,950, corrective pressure could deepen toward 28,700 and lower supports.

Upcoming Events

Positive Catalyst: Improving festive-season demand and stronger vehicle registrations could revive sentiment across automobile manufacturers.
Negative Catalyst: Higher metal, rubber and crude-linked input costs may pressure margins and restrict sector recovery.
Positive/Negative Catalyst: Monthly vehicle-sales data, interest-rate expectations and policy developments could influence sector direction.

Major Support and Resistance

Support: 28,950, 28,700, 28,500
Resistance: 29,260, 29,350, 29,600

Volume Analysis

Volume stands near 7.34 million and has moderated during the recent consolidation, reflecting limited conviction from both sides. A meaningful increase above 29,350 would support recovery, while heavier supply below 28,950 could intensify correction risk.

Final Take Away

Nifty Auto retains its broader positive structure above 28,864, but immediate momentum remains fragile beneath 29,260. Defending 28,950 may preserve consolidation; reclaiming 29,350 is necessary to restore confidence and reopen higher resistance zones next week.

Next Week Prediction

Next week, holding 28,950 could sustain range formation before recovery toward 29,600; failure to defend support may expose 28,700–28,500 amid cautious participation across auto counters.

Scenario-Based Outlook

Bullish Scenario: Above 29,350, price may move toward the 29,600–29,850 zone.
Bearish Scenario: Below 28,950, downside risk toward the 28,700–28,500 zone.
Neutral Scenario: Between 28,950–29,350, consolidation likely.

Nifty IT Bears Retain Control Below 30,795; Recovery Above 30,850 Could Reach 31,100, While 30,350 Failure Risks Deeper Weakness - 22.08.2026

Aetram Research India - Nifty IT - Weekly Sector Outlook

Nifty IT Bears Retain Control Below 30,795; Recovery Above 30,850 Could Reach 31,100, While 30,350 Failure Risks Deeper Weakness - 22.08.2026

Current Market Price: 30,532.25

Market Prediction

Nifty IT remains under corrective pressure below the 30,795–30,847 moving-average barrier, although the 30,350 long-term average is providing support. RSI at 45.80 reflects hesitant momentum, while ADX at 20.91 shows limited trend strength. Recovery above 30,850 could improve sentiment; below 30,350, bearish pressure may intensify toward 30,100 and nearby supports.

Upcoming Events

Positive Catalyst: Rupee depreciation could improve revenue-conversion expectations for export-oriented technology companies.
Negative Catalyst: Weakness in US technology shares or cautious global client spending may restrict sector recovery.
Positive/Negative Catalyst: Major outsourcing contracts, management commentary and global economic data could influence sector sentiment.

Major Support and Resistance

Support: 30,350, 30,100, 29,800
Resistance: 30,795, 30,850, 31,100

Volume Analysis

Volume is subdued near 4.75 million, indicating cautious participation during the decline and subsequent stabilisation. Without meaningful expansion, recovery conviction remains limited; stronger activity above 30,850 or below 30,350 should clarify directional sector control.

Final Take Away

Nifty IT is attempting to stabilise near 30,350, but price remains beneath key averages and momentum lacks authority. Reclaiming 30,850 would repair the structure; losing 30,350 could expose 30,100 and extend sector underperformance further near-term.

Next Week Prediction

Next week, holding 30,350 could support a rebound toward 30,850–31,100; continued rejection below the moving-average cluster may keep technology shares defensively positioned amid selective participation.

Scenario-Based Outlook

Bullish Scenario: Above 30,850, price may move toward the 31,100–31,400 zone.
Bearish Scenario: Below 30,350, downside risk toward the 30,100–29,800 zone.
Neutral Scenario: Between 30,350–30,850, consolidation likely.

Nifty Financial Services Bulls Rebound Above 26,200; Strength Beyond 26,400 Could Target 26,550, While 26,100 Failure Restores Pressure - 22.08.2026

Aetram Research India - Nifty Financial Services - Weekly Sector Outlook

Nifty Financial Services Bulls Rebound Above 26,200; Strength Beyond 26,400 Could Target 26,550, While 26,100 Failure Restores Pressure - 22.08.2026

Current Market Price: 26,261.00

Market Prediction

The index is rebounding from recent lows and has reclaimed the short-term average, while remaining below the 26,344–26,390 resistance cluster. RSI at 58.06 and improving MACD support recovery, though ADX at 23.17 suggests moderate conviction. Sustaining above 26,400 could strengthen upside; below 26,100, bearish pressure may return toward recent lows.

Upcoming Events

Positive Catalyst: Softer bond yields and supportive liquidity conditions could improve sentiment across financial services companies.
Negative Catalyst: Renewed foreign outflows or rising borrowing costs may restrict recovery beneath overhead resistance.
Positive/Negative Catalyst: RBI policy commentary, credit-growth data and institutional flows could influence near-term direction.

Major Support and Resistance

Support: 26,200, 26,100, 25,950
Resistance: 26,344, 26,400, 26,550

Volume Analysis

Volume stands near 19.48 million, reflecting measured participation during the rebound. Buying interest has improved without becoming forceful; expansion above 26,400 would strengthen confirmation, whereas heavier selling below 26,100 could accelerate weakness across financial constituents.

Final Take Away

Financial Services shows an improving recovery above 26,200, but overhead averages at 26,344–26,390 remain decisive barriers. Momentum favours further repair, provided 26,100 holds; failure there would undermine recovery and reopen 25,950 as the next support.

Next Week Prediction

Next week, acceptance above 26,400 could improve financial-sector breadth toward 26,550–26,700; continued rejection may keep the index confined between 26,100 and 26,400 during volatile movement.

Scenario-Based Outlook

Bullish Scenario: Above 26,400, price may move toward the 26,550–26,700 zone.
Bearish Scenario: Below 26,100, downside risk toward the 25,950–25,800 zone.
Neutral Scenario: Between 26,100–26,400, consolidation likely.

Bank Nifty Bulls Regain Control Above 57,600; Strength Beyond 57,850 Could Target 58,100, While 57,450 Failure Revives Pressure - 22.08.2026

Aetram Research India - BANK NIFTY Weekly Sector Outlook

Aetram Research India - BankNifty - Weekly Sector Outlook

Bank Nifty Bulls Regain Control Above 57,600; Strength Beyond 57,850 Could Target 58,100, While 57,450 Failure Revives Pressure - 22.08.2026

Current Market Price: 57,761.95

Market Prediction

Bank Nifty is recovering above its moving-average cluster, indicating improving short-term demand. RSI at 63.26 and positive MACD momentum favour bulls, while ADX at 26.23 shows strengthening directional conviction. Holding 57,600 keeps 57,850–58,100 accessible; however, rejection near resistance or weakness below 57,450 could revive consolidation pressure across banking counters nearby.

Upcoming Events

Positive Catalyst: Continued liquidity support and institutional participation could reinforce demand across heavyweight banking shares.
Negative Catalyst: Rising bond yields or renewed foreign outflows could restrict valuation-sensitive financial stocks.
Positive/Negative Catalyst: RBI commentary, liquidity developments and banking-sector updates may influence directional sentiment.

Major Support and Resistance

Support: 57,600, 57,450, 57,300
Resistance: 57,850, 58,100, 58,300

Volume Analysis

Volume remains moderate near 28.95 million, with recent recovery lacking aggressive participation. Momentum improvement is constructive, but stronger volume expansion above 57,850 would validate sustained demand; fading activity near resistance could encourage renewed profit booking.

Final Take Away

Bank Nifty holds a constructive recovery bias above 57,600, supported by improving oscillators and price above key averages. Strength requires acceptance beyond 57,850, while a fall below 57,450 would weaken momentum and reopen lower supports.

Next Week Prediction

Next week, sustained positioning above 57,600 could lift Bank Nifty toward 58,100–58,300; failure to protect 57,450 may return the index to consolidation near lower supports.

Scenario-Based Outlook

Bullish Scenario: Above 57,850, price may move toward the 58,100–58,300 zone.
Bearish Scenario: Below 57,450, downside risk toward the 57,300–57,000 zone.
Neutral Scenario: Between 57,450–57,850, consolidation likely.

Nifty 50 Bulls Defend 24,250, but Strength Above 24,310 Is Needed; Failure Below 24,200 Could Renew Near-Term Pressure - 22.08.2026

Aetram Research India - NIFTY 50 Weekly Sector Outlook

Nifty 50 Bulls Defend 24,250, but Strength Above 24,310 Is Needed; Failure Below 24,200 Could Renew Near-Term Pressure - 22.08.2026

Current Market Price: 24,252

Market Prediction

Nifty remains range-bound near a tightly clustered moving-average zone, reflecting balanced control. RSI at 55.43 and a positive MACD crossover support a mild recovery bias, but ADX at 17.88 signals weak trend conviction. Sustained acceptance above 24,310 could strengthen momentum, whereas a close below 24,200 may restore selling pressure quickly.

Upcoming Events

Positive Catalyst: Sustained domestic institutional inflows could support recovery and strengthen market breadth.
Negative Catalyst: Renewed foreign institutional selling may restrict gains near immediate resistance levels.
Positive/Negative Catalyst: Global equity sentiment, crude oil movement and US dollar volatility could influence near-term direction.

Major Support and Resistance

Support: 24,250, 24,200, 24,100
Resistance: 24,310, 24,450, 24,600

Volume Analysis

Volume remains subdued near 49.44 million, showing limited participation as price tests the moving-average cluster. The absence of strong expansion reduces conviction, so directional confirmation requires higher activity alongside acceptance beyond 24,310 or below 24,200.

Final Take Away

Nifty carries a mildly positive bias above 24,250, supported by improving momentum, yet weak ADX keeps the structure range-bound. A decisive move above 24,310 strengthens recovery prospects; loss of 24,200 would shift control toward bears.

Next Week Prediction

Next week, holding 24,200 may preserve consolidation with an upward tilt; acceptance above 24,310 could expose 24,450–24,600, while rejection risks a renewed test of support.

Scenario-Based Outlook

Bullish Scenario: Above 24,310, price may move toward the 24,450–24,600 zone.
Bearish Scenario: Below 24,200, downside risk toward the 24,100–23,950 zone.
Neutral Scenario: Between 24,200–24,310, consolidation likely.

Monday Market Review - 08.06.2026

1. Global Market Developments

New trading week begins amid heightened uncertainty and weak global sentiment.
Escalation in Iran-Israel tensions has increased geopolitical risks globally.
Asian markets opened sharply lower due to geopolitical concerns.
Japanese markets witnessed significant pressure, trading below key levels.
US index futures initially indicated heavy weakness but later recovered to a flat-to-negative trend.
US markets experienced a brutal sell-off on Friday.
Nasdaq recorded its biggest decline since April 2025.
Volatility Index (VIX) surged sharply, indicating rising fear in global markets.
Brent crude oil rebounded sharply and moved close to USD 95 per barrel.
US 10-year bond yields climbed toward 4.55%.
Gold, crude oil, and safe-haven assets regained strength after geopolitical escalation.

2. Iran-Israel Geopolitical Tensions

Iran and Israel continued retaliatory attacks.
Multiple military strikes increased uncertainty in the Middle East.
US President Donald Trump reportedly urged Israel not to attack Iran while diplomatic negotiations continue.
Despite diplomatic efforts, tensions remain elevated.
Markets remain concerned that the conflict could expand further.
Rising geopolitical uncertainty is supporting crude oil prices and risk aversion globally.

3. US Market Performance

Major Market Declines

Dow Jones witnessed significant weakness.
S&P 500 ended near the day's low.
Nasdaq experienced a sharp correction.
Technology stocks led the decline.

Technology Sector Weakness

NVIDIA declined sharply.
Apple, Google, Broadcom, Amazon, and other large-cap technology stocks came under pressure.
High valuations in AI-related stocks remain a concern.

4. US Economic Data Impact

Strong US Jobs Data

May 2026 US Non-Farm Payrolls came at approximately 172,000 jobs.
Market expectations were around 85,000 jobs.
Actual data exceeded expectations by more than double.

Implications

Strong employment data suggests continued economic resilience.
Strong labor markets may keep inflation elevated.
Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have weakened.
Markets fear a prolonged higher interest rate environment.
Stronger US dollar and higher bond yields are creating pressure on risk assets globally.

5. Federal Reserve Concerns

Markets increasingly believe rate cuts may be delayed.
Possibility of a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance has increased.
Investors are closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.
Any indication of future rate hikes could create additional pressure on global equities.

6. Indian Market Developments

RBI Policy Announcement

RBI policy was broadly viewed as positive from a macro perspective.
Inflation projections were revised upward.
GDP growth projections were revised downward.
RBI acknowledged global uncertainties but expressed confidence in India's resilience.

Market Reaction

Markets did not react positively to the policy announcement.
Large-cap stocks remained under pressure.
Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank witnessed weakness.
Overall market breadth remained negative.

7. Government Bond Market Reforms

Government announced tax benefits for foreign investors in government securities.
Exemptions were provided on certain interest income and related investments.
Despite these measures, foreign investors remained sellers.
Markets were disappointed as these incentives failed to improve sentiment immediately.

8. Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) Activity

Significant Selling Pressure

FIIs sold approximately ₹8,776 crore in a single trading session.
FIIs have already sold around ₹31,000 crore during the first few trading sessions of June.
Persistent foreign selling remains a major concern for Indian markets.

Key Observation

Despite policy support and incentives, FIIs remain unconvinced.
Concerns over growth, inflation, and global risks continue to dominate.

9. Indian GDP Analysis

Positive Aspects

Q4 GDP growth reported around 7.8%.
Annual GDP performance remained strong.
Economic growth data appears robust on a historical basis.

Concerns

RBI projects GDP growth around 6.6% going forward.
Previous growth was around 7.7%.
Growth expectations indicate a slowdown of nearly 1%.
Investors are worried about moderating growth momentum.

10. Inflation Concerns

Inflation projections remain elevated.
Rising crude oil prices could worsen inflation pressures.
LPG prices have already increased.
Possibility of higher fuel prices remains.
Rising inflation may limit RBI's flexibility in monetary policy.

11. Interest Rate Outlook

Global

Strong US economic data increases the probability of a hawkish Federal Reserve.
Future US rate hikes cannot be completely ruled out.

India

Rising inflation and global rate pressures may eventually force RBI to consider tighter monetary conditions.
Markets generally dislike rising interest rate environments.

12. Currency Market

Indian Rupee initially strengthened after policy announcements.
Later, the currency weakened again.
Dollar strength remains a major challenge for emerging markets.
Dollar Index moving above 100 is viewed as a risk factor.

13. Derivatives & Options Data

Nifty Option Positioning

Maximum Call Writing observed at:
- 24,000 Strike
- 23,500 Strike

Maximum Put Writing

Significant Put positions observed at:
- 23,000 Strike

Market Interpretation

23,000 acts as a major support zone.
23,500 acts as a major resistance zone.
Heavy option positioning suggests range-bound but volatile movement.
Breaking either side may require strong triggers.

14. Gift Nifty Indication

Gift Nifty indicated a sharp gap-down opening.
Market sentiment remained highly negative before opening.
Global weakness was expected to influence Indian markets significantly.

15. Investor Guidance

Important Market Principles

Do not panic during market declines.
Avoid selling quality investments due to short-term fear.
Never buy solely based on excitement or market euphoria.
Maintain discipline during volatile periods.
SIP investments can continue without interruption.
Long-term investors should focus on quality businesses rather than short-term market noise.

16. Trading Guidance

Expect higher volatility during the session.
Gap-down opening may be followed by intraday recovery attempts.
Traders should maintain strict risk management.
Avoid emotional trading decisions.

17. Long-Term Investing Philosophy

Key Lessons

Wealth creation depends heavily on investor psychology.
Investors often sell good stocks but fail to buy them back later.
Quality businesses should not be sold simply because prices have risen.
Successful investing requires patience and discipline.

18. Structural Economic Concerns Highlighted

Issues Identified

Slower growth expectations.
Persistent inflation pressures.
Weak FDI inflows.
Continued FII selling.
High dependence on global capital flows.

Suggested Reforms

Large-scale structural reforms rather than temporary policy measures.
Land reforms.
Improved ease of doing business.
Stronger FDI attraction strategies.
State-level accountability for investment promotion.
Faster approval and execution systems.

19. Key Takeaways

Near-Term Market View

Global sentiment remains negative.
Iran-Israel tensions are the primary immediate risk.
Strong US jobs data has reduced hopes of aggressive rate cuts.
Rising crude oil prices are inflationary.
FIIs continue aggressive selling in Indian markets.
Nifty faces resistance around 23,500 and support around 23,000.
Market volatility is expected to remain elevated.

Investor Action Plan

Stay calm during market declines.
Avoid panic selling.
Continue disciplined investing.
Focus on long-term wealth creation.
React to market developments rather than trying to predict exact market levels.
Maintain a rules-based investment approach during uncertain periods.