Special Report - Medium term Outlook
Aetram Special Market Outlook and Top Sectors to Watch - Aetram Research India
*Global Market View*
- Global equity bull market remains strong with US at lifetime highs.
- Europe, China, Taiwan, Korea and Asia continue showing bullish momentum.
- India has underperformed globally over the last year.
*Indian Market Overview*
- Nifty has been range-bound for nearly six weeks.
- Clear range between 25,700- 25750 (support) and 26,250–26,350 (resistance).
- The market resembles a tug-of-war, with neither bulls nor bears gaining decisive control.
- Domestic liquidity is supporting markets amid global uncertainties.
- News flow, Trump-related developments and macro factors creating volatility.
*Index-Level Outlook*
- Short-term downside possible, but no structural bearish view.
- Eventual upside breakout expected, but not immediate.
*Nifty Target Outlook* (12-18 Months )
- Near-term focus remains on range, not targets.
- Medium-term upside breakout expected after consolidation.
- 12–18 month upside target projected around 28,000 /28450.
- Rally expected to be slow and effort-intensive.
*Sector Rotation & Preferences*
- PSU banks outperforming private banks.
- Non-ferrous metals outperforming ferrous metals.
- PSU space showing strong comeback momentum.
- Good valued stocks underperformed over last 2–6 months.
*Top Sector Bets* (12-18 Months )
- Metals are the strongest conviction theme.
- Metals index expected to deliver another 10 to 15% upside.
- All dips in metals viewed as buying opportunities.
- PSU sector seen as opportunity of the year (excluding defence PSU & railways PSU).
- Banking sector expected to revive, led by PSU banks and select private banks.
*Precious Metals View*
- Gold and silver have likely peaked after parabolic Curve rally.
- Technical studies no longer supportive for Clear short term.
- Expect price and time correction in precious metals.
- Capital likely to rotate back into equities.
*Base Metals Outlook* (12-18 Months )
- Strong bullish conviction on base metals.
- Copper, Aluminium, zinc, lead, nickel showing strength.
- Base metals likely to be the key theme of the year.
- Global and Indian proxy stocks expected to outperform.
*Budget Expectations*
- Markets largely supported by domestic retail inflows.
- Government aware of strong monthly SIP inflows.
- GST and income tax reforms have been positive.
- RBI actions supportive over last six months.
- Capital gains reform possible to support long-term investors.
- Budget expected to play a catalytic role.
