*Pre-Budget Expectations*
BUDGET and POLICY OUTLOOK - Aetram Research India
*Budget Expectations*
* Markets expect higher allocation to infrastructure, railways, defence, renewables, housing, and manufacturing-linked incentives. Focus is likely on capex-led growth, MSME credit support, EV ecosystem, logistics efficiency, and digital public infrastructure. Rural spending, agriculture reforms, and healthcare outlay may see moderate but steady increases.
*Tax Expectations – LTCG, STCG & Income Tax*
* Investors expect rationalisation of LTCG tax on equities, possibly increasing exemption limits or reducing holding-period complexity. STCG tax rates may remain unchanged. Income-tax expectations include higher basic exemption, revised slabs, increased standard deduction, and relief for middle-income salaried taxpayers to boost consumption sentiment.
*Overall Market Outlook*
* Markets enter the Budget with cautiously positive bias, pricing in continuity rather than radical reforms. Stability in fiscal deficit, sustained capex push, and tax relief signals are key triggers. Volatility is expected on Budget day, but medium-term trend depends on growth visibility, earnings outlook, and global cues.
*If Budget Is Positive*
* A growth-focused, tax-friendly Budget could trigger a relief rally. Nifty may move up *+300 to +800 points* immediately, driven by banking, capital goods, infrastructure, and consumption stocks. Sustained follow-through could push markets higher over subsequent sessions if fiscal discipline and earnings visibility remain intact.
*If Budget Is Negative*
* If the Budget disappoints on taxes, capex, or fiscal discipline, markets may react sharply. Nifty could correct *-400 to -700 points*, led by profit booking in PSU, infra, and banking stocks. However, deeper falls may be limited unless global cues and liquidity also turn adverse.
*Sector wise expectations*
*NIFTY*
* Markets expect continuity-driven Budget with strong capex, fiscal discipline, and consumption support. Tax stability and infrastructure push are key. Any positive surprise on income tax or growth spending may sustain the uptrend, while fiscal slippage or tax shocks could trigger short-term volatility.
*BANKING*
* Expect support for credit growth through capex-led demand, MSME financing, and PSU bank balance-sheet strengthening. Stable regulations, lower NPAs, and liquidity support are key expectations. Any capital infusion or credit guarantee expansion could improve sentiment across public and private sector banks.
*AUTO*
* Expect incentives for EVs, charging infrastructure, battery manufacturing, and vehicle scrappage policy momentum. Rural income measures and tax relief could boost demand for two-wheelers and entry-level cars. Stable GST structure and clean mobility focus remain critical for sector sentiment.
*ENERGY*
* Markets expect strong push toward renewables, green hydrogen, energy storage, and transmission infrastructure. Policy clarity on energy security, domestic production, and ESG transition is key. Continued support for oil marketing stability and renewable capacity expansion may drive sector confidence.
*FINANCE*
* NBFCs and financial services expect liquidity support, credit guarantee extensions, and regulatory stability. Focus on MSME lending, housing finance, and consumer credit growth is anticipated. Any tax incentives for savings or investments could positively impact financial product demand.
*FMCG*
* Sector expectations revolve around income tax relief, rural spending, and inflation control. Higher disposable income could revive consumption growth. Stable GST policies, food security allocation, and rural employment schemes may support volume recovery and margin stability for FMCG companies.
*IT*
* Budget impact is usually limited, but expectations include incentives for AI, data centers, digital infrastructure, and startups. Support for innovation, R&D, and ease of doing business may aid long-term growth. Global demand outlook remains a larger driver than domestic policy.
*MEDIA*
* Expectations include support for digital media, content creation, and advertising ecosystem growth. Any boost to consumption, tourism, or MSME activity may indirectly benefit ad revenues. Regulatory clarity and digital infrastructure spending could support long-term transformation in the media sector.
*METALS*
* Markets expect clarity on mining reforms, infrastructure demand, and green transition policies. Continued capex push could support steel and aluminum demand. Measures to reduce import dependency, logistics costs, and energy expenses may help improve margins for metal producers.
*PHARMA*
* Expect higher healthcare allocation, support for domestic API manufacturing, and R&D incentives. Focus on medical infrastructure, insurance penetration, and preventive healthcare could aid growth. Stable export policies and regulatory clarity remain important for improving long-term earnings visibility.
*PSU BANK*
* Markets expect continued balance-sheet support, credit growth momentum, and governance stability. Any capital infusion, asset monetisation, or improved recovery mechanisms may boost confidence. PSU banks remain sensitive to fiscal discipline, interest rate outlook, and government-led growth initiatives.
*REALTY*
* Expect incentives for affordable housing, extension of home-loan tax benefits, and urban infrastructure development. Support for rental housing and REIT-friendly measures is anticipated. Lower interest rate environment and income tax relief could further improve housing demand sentiment.
