*Cigarette Excise Duty Hike: Estimated Financial Impact on ITC Ltd. and Godfrey Phillips India* - 01.01.2026

 Aetram Research India : *Special Report - Cigarette Excise Duty Hike*

*Cigarette Excise Duty Hike: Estimated Financial Impact on ITC Ltd. and Godfrey Phillips India* - 01.01.2026

* Market reaction at the start of 2026 has been sharp. ITC shares declined about 9%, while Godfrey Phillips fell nearly 15% following the government’s notification on cigarette excise duties.

* While the government had already indicated a higher GST framework for cigarettes in September, the move to a 40% GST effective February 1, 2026—replacing the earlier 28% GST plus cess—was largely anticipated. The real negative surprise for markets lies in the detailed excise structure announced alongside the GST change.

 

Aetram Research India - Cigarette Excise Duty Hike 

*Key aspect the market did not factor in*
* Introduction of new excise duties that exceed the current effective tax burden
* A much sharper rise in overall tax incidence than earlier expectations

*Earlier tax structure (indicative)*
* GST: 28%
* Specific cess: ₹2,076–₹4,170 per 1,000 sticks
* Ad valorem cess: 5%–36%
* NCCD: ₹510–₹850 per 1,000 sticks

*Expected / feared taxation structure*
* GST: 40%
* New excise duty: ₹2,150–₹8,500 per 1,000 sticks
* NCCD: unchanged

*NCCD stands for National Calamity Contingent Duty.*
* It is a special excise duty levied by the Government of India on select goods such as cigarettes, tobacco products, petroleum products, and certain automobiles, primarily to fund relief and rehabilitation during national calamities.

*Initial financial implications based on preliminary calculations*
* Total tax per cigarette stick could rise by 20%–40%
* Tax incidence as a percentage of MRP may increase to 65%–80%, compared with 50%–60% earlier
* Companies may need to raise prices by 18%–35% to fully pass on the higher tax burden
* If prices are not increased, EBIT impact could exceed 40%
* If prices are increased meaningfully, volume contraction becomes a key risk

*Key uncertainties the market is tracking*
* Final structure, timing, and quantum of tax implementation
* Degree of volume impact if companies raise prices
* Margin impact if companies absorb part of the tax increase
* Long-term implications for the legal cigarette industry, especially versus the illicit market

*Sector concern*
* While the final outcome is still evolving, confirmation of this structure would be clearly negative for the sector. The brokerage highlighted the dual risk of volume pressure from higher prices and renewed concerns around migration of demand toward the illicit cigarette market.

*Overall assessment*
* The excise duty announcement materially alters the risk-reward profile for cigarette manufacturers in the near to medium term. Until clarity emerges on execution and pricing response, sentiment is likely to remain cautious, with heightened volatility in tobacco stocks.

Aetram Research India - Market Outlook 2026 - 30.12.2025

 Aetram Research India - Market Outlook 2026 : 30.12.2025

Special Report

*1. Market Wrap-Up: End of 2025*

* Indian equity markets demonstrated notable resilience despite persistent global macro and geopolitical uncertainty
* Domestic liquidity continued to be the primary shock absorber for Indian markets
* The post-COVID liquidity-led structural uptrend, now five years old, remains intact
* A rare market divergence is visible: 
            Price action hovering near 52-week highs
            Investor sentiment close to 52-week lows
* Markets have already discounted most adverse developments over the past 6–8 months

*2. Outlook for 2026: Strategic Assessment*

* Policy support and government-led initiatives are expected to aid earnings recovery
* Corporate earnings over the next few quarters are likely to justify current market levels
* Technical structures remain constructive on higher timeframes
* Equity outlook for 2026 remains positive, subject to key considerations
* Broad-based rallies are unlikely
* Selective, sector- and stock-specific exposure is essential
* Alpha generation, defined as the ability to outperform the market, will be driven by precision rather than widespread participation.

*3. Asset Allocation Debate: Metals vs Equities*

*Precious Metals (Gold & Silver)*
* Delivered Big returns in 2025
* Trade considered largely mature
* Fresh investments not advised at current levels
* Profit booking recommended in gold and silver
* Long-term holding (3–5 years) still acceptable for investors

*4. Base Metals (Preferred Theme)*

* Strong conviction on base metals:
* Copper | Zinc |  Aluminium | Nickel |  Lead
* Base metals trend still developing
* Expected to outperform over the next 12–18 months
Clear preference:
  * Stay out of precious metals |   * Stay invested in base metals

*5.What’s Next in Metals?*

* Rally expected to broaden:
  * Ferrous metals
  * Steel stocks may join
* Metals Index target: 11,800 | 12,000 | 12200
* Implied upside: 12–15% from current levels

*6. Preferred Sectors Going Forward*

* Banking | Metals | PSU stocks | Automobiles | Real Estate

*PSU Stocks: 2026 Theme*
* Strong conviction on PSU stocks for 2026
*Reasons:*
  * Comfortable valuations
  * Under-owned segment
  * 18 months of consolidation completed
  * Strong relative strength
  * Attractive dividend yields
  * Minimal geopolitical dependency
* Expect significant outperformance in PSU space

*7. FII / Global Flows Outlook*

* FIIs unlikely to return aggressively in the near term
* Reasons:
  * Indian valuations expensive
  * Better opportunities in other global markets
  * Liquidity exit challenges in midcaps and smallcaps
* China viewed as a major opportunity for next few years
* Domestic SIP flows (₹30,000 crore / Per month) provide near-term stability
* Earnings growth crucial to sustain domestic inflows

*8. Clear Do’s & Don’ts for Investors in 2026*

*What to Do*

* Stick to quality and industry leaders
* Focus on comfortable valuation stocks
* Maintain a concentrated portfolio
* Start exploring global investing opportunities

*What Not to Do*

* Avoid speculative and adventurous stocks
* Avoid over-diversification
* Avoid IPO hype and valuation traps

*Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Please consult your financial advisor before making trading decisions.*

Avoid Trading or Investing Using Borrowed Money - Aetram Research

 Aetram Research India : *Knowledge Corner* 

*Avoid Trading or Investing Using Borrowed Money*

*1. What Is Borrowed Money?*

* Borrowed money refers to funds taken as a loan from banks, friends, credit cards, or other lenders. This money must be repaid within a fixed time period along with interest, irrespective of whether the investment generates profits or losses.

*2. Trading Using Borrowed Money*

* Trading in the stock market is inherently risky and requires full attention, discipline, and emotional control during market hours. When borrowed money is used for trading, psychological pressure builds to trade frequently and generate daily profits in order to repay the lender. However, earning profits every day is unrealistic because stock markets are unpredictable and can move in any direction.

   *Key Problems*

* Pressure to generate daily profits
* Forced or unnecessary trades
* Emotional decision-making
* Loss of trading discipline
* Overtrading due to repayment stress

   *Disadvantages*

* Magnified losses due to leverage
* Increased stress and anxiety
* Fixed EMIs regardless of trading outcomes
* Rapid capital erosion

*3. Investing Borrowed Money in the Stock Market*

* During bull markets, investing borrowed money may appear attractive as stock prices rise and returns seem easy, even after paying interest. However, market direction cannot be predicted, and sudden corrections or crashes can lead to heavy losses while loan repayments continue.

   *Key Problems*

* Unpredictable market movements
* Exposure to sudden market crashes
* Short-term capital gains tax reducing net returns
* Forced selling during downturns

   *Disadvantages*

* Loss of flexibility in holding investments
* Difficulty staying invested during corrections
* Risk of long-term losses due to short-term pressure

*4. Investing Borrowed Money in Debt Instruments*

* Debt instruments such as fixed deposits, debt mutual funds, and fixed maturity plans generally offer returns lower than the cost of borrowing.

  *Key Problems*

* Lower returns compared to loan interest
* Taxable interest income
* Capital gains tax reducing returns

  *Disadvantages*

* Negative return after interest and tax
* EMIs paid from personal income
* Inefficient use of borrowed funds

*5. Investing Borrowed Money in Gold*

* Gold is often considered a safe-haven asset during financial uncertainty and usually moves opposite to equity markets. However, gold does not generate any regular income.

*Key Problems*
* No interest or dividend income
* Cash generated only upon sale
* Price fluctuations over short periods

 *Disadvantages*
* Difficulty servicing EMIs without selling gold
* Liquidity pressure during loan tenure
* Dependence solely on price appreciation

*6. Investing Borrowed Money in Real Estate*

* Borrowing to buy a first self-occupied house is generally acceptable. However, borrowing to invest in real estate purely for investment purposes requires careful evaluation.
   *Key Problems*
* Uncertain rental income
* Low liquidity of property assets
* Difficulty selling during emergencies
* Risk of buying at peak prices
  *Disadvantages*
* High loan amounts and long EMIs
* Financial strain during market downturns
* Exposure to real estate market cycles

*7. CAUTION*

* Borrowing money for investing significantly increases financial risk. Loan EMIs are fixed obligations, while investment returns are uncertain. Unexpected events such as job loss, medical emergencies, or market crashes can quickly turn manageable debt into a serious financial burden. Borrowed money also increases emotional stress, often leading to panic selling and long-term financial damage.
*Key Risks*
* Fixed repayment obligations
* Uncertain and volatile returns
* Increased emotional pressure
* Forced liquidation at unfavorable prices

*8. Does Borrowing Always Mean a Bad Decision?*

* Borrowing money is not always wrong. Many successful businesses have grown using borrowed capital. Borrowing can make sense only when cash flows are predictable, risks are well understood, and expected returns clearly exceed borrowing costs.
*Key Considerations*
* Impact on overall financial stability
* Ability to service EMIs comfortably
* Backup plan if investment underperforms
* Risk versus reward balance

*9. Important Warning*

* Never use credit cards to borrow money for investing. Credit card interest rates are extremely high—often around 3% per month or 36% annually—and late payment penalties can worsen the situation, potentially leading to a debt trap.

   *Disadvantages*

* Extremely high interest cost
* Compounding debt burden
* Severe financial stress
* Risk of long-term debt trap

*10. Final Note*

* Trading and investing in the stock market are not quick-rich schemes. Long-term success requires discipline, education, patience, and effective risk management. Borrowing removes these advantages by adding pressure and rigid repayment commitments.
*Key Takeaways*
* Markets reward patience, not pressure
* Discipline matters more than leverage
* Risk management is essential

*11. Final Takeaway*
* If an investment is volatile, has uncertain returns, or requires strong emotional discipline, borrowed money should not be used.

After Gold and Silver: The Case for Copper’s Long-Term Growth - 20.12.2025

 *After Gold and Silver: The Case for Copper’s Long-Term Growth* - - 20.12.2025

*Institutional Research Note*
* Copper is emerging as one of the most strategically important industrial metals of the next global growth cycle. While gold and silver have traditionally dominated investor focus, copper’s relevance is rising rapidly due to structural shifts in the global economy.



* Electrification, renewable energy expansion, electric vehicles, data-centre growth, and large-scale infrastructure development are collectively driving sustained growth in copper demand. At the same time, global copper supply remains constrained by long mine development timelines, declining ore grades, regulatory challenges, and geopolitical risks. This widening demand–supply gap supports a constructive long-term outlook for copper.

*Why copper demand is rising structurally*
* Copper is a core input for power generation, transmission, and storage. Renewable energy systems require significantly higher copper usage than fossil-fuel infrastructure. Electric vehicles consume three to four times more copper than conventional vehicles, while charging infrastructure and battery plants further add to demand. Growth in data centres, cloud computing, and urban infrastructure continues to reinforce long-term copper consumption.

*Supply-side challenges*
* Copper supply growth is structurally limited. New mines typically take more than a decade to develop, while existing mines face declining ore grades. Environmental regulations, water constraints, and geopolitical factors further restrict supply expansion.

*Copper price outlook*
* In the near term, copper prices may remain firm with intermittent volatility. Over the medium to long term, structural demand growth is expected to keep prices above historical averages, provided there is no major global economic slowdown.

*Stocks linked to the copper theme*

US:
• Freeport-McMoRan
• Southern Copper Corporation
• BHP Group
• Rio Tinto

UK:
• Anglo American
• Antofagasta
• Glencore

India:
• Hindustan Copper
• Hindalco Industries
• Madhav Copper
• Rajputana Industries

*Key risks*
* Global economic slowdown, faster substitution or recycling, regulatory or geopolitical disruptions, and valuation risks during commodity cycle peaks.

*Conclusion*
* After gold and silver, copper is increasingly emerging as a strategic growth metal. Structural demand drivers and supply constraints support a long-term positive outlook. Diversified exposure to copper-linked equities across global markets offers a way to participate in this evolving theme while managing risk.

*BOOK* Summary : *The Richest Man in Babylon* - Author: George S. Clason

 Aetram Research India : *Knowledge Corner*

*BOOK* Summary : *The Richest Man in Babylon* - Author: George S. Clason

*Chapter 1: The Man Who Desired Gold*

Core Learning

• Desire for wealth must turn into action

• Earning alone does not create wealth; saving does

Indian Market Example

• A salaried person earning ₹40,000 monthly but saving nothing stays financially stagnant

• Another person earning ₹30,000 but investing ₹3,000 monthly in Nifty Index Fund builds wealth over time

Key Takeaway

• Wanting money is not enough; disciplined action creates wealth.

*Chapter 2: The Richest Man in Babylon*

Core Learning

• Pay yourself first

• Save at least one-tenth of income

Indian Market Example

• Monthly SIP of 10% income in mutual funds

• ₹5,000 SIP growing at 12% becomes ~₹50 lakhs in 20 years

Key Takeaway

• Savings is the foundation of investing.

*Chapter 3: Seven Cures for a Lean Purse*

Core Learning

• Control expenses

• Budget wisely

• Grow earning ability

Indian Market Example

• Cutting unnecessary EMIs and redirecting money into equity SIPs

• Using bonuses for long-term investments instead of lifestyle upgrades

Key Takeaway

• Wealth grows when expenses are managed intelligently.

*Chapter 4: Meet the Goddess of Good Luck*

Core Learning

• Opportunities come to prepared minds

• Learning and awareness attract success

Indian Market Example

• Investors who studied banking stocks benefited during rate-cut cycles

• Knowledgeable investors entered PSU banks before re-rating phases

Key Takeaway

• Luck favours those who are financially educated.

*Chapter 5: The Five Laws of Gold*

Core Learning

• Money grows for those who invest wisely

• Protect capital before chasing returns

Indian Market Example

• Investing in diversified mutual funds instead of unverified stock tips

• Avoiding Ponzi schemes promising fixed monthly returns

Key Takeaway

• Capital protection is more important than fast profits.

*Chapter 6: The Gold Lender of Babylon*

Core Learning

• Understand risk before lending or investing

• Avoid investments you do not understand

Indian Market Example

• Retail investors losing money in complex option selling without knowledge

• Safer investors sticking to equity funds or blue-chip stocks

Key Takeaway

• Never invest blindly or emotionally.

*Chapter 7: The Walls of Babylon*

Core Learning

• Wealth must be protected from losses

• Risk management is essential

Indian Market Example

• Asset allocation between equity, debt, and gold

• Avoiding overexposure to single stocks or sectors

Key Takeaway

• Protection of wealth ensures long-term financial survival.

*Chapter 8: The Camel Trader of Babylon*

Core Learning

• Seek advice from knowledgeable people

• Avoid amateur guidance

Indian Market Example

• Taking guidance from registered advisors instead of social media tips

• Following proven investment frameworks rather than rumours

Key Takeaway

• Wise advice saves money and time.

*Chapter 9: The Clay Tablets from Babylon*

Core Learning

• Long-term planning creates lasting wealth

• Consistency beats timing the market

Indian Market Example

• Long-term SIPs in Nifty 50 outperform frequent trading for most investors

• Retirement planning through equity + debt allocation

Key Takeaway

• Planning converts income into lifelong wealth.

*Chapter 10: The Luckiest Man in Babylon*

Core Learning

• Wealth is a result of discipline and patience

• Consistency creates freedom

Indian Market Example

• Investors who stayed invested during market crashes built massive wealth later

• Long-term investors benefited from compounding despite short-term volatility

Key Takeaway

• True wealth is built slowly and sustainably.

*The Richest Man in Babylon* Final Takeaway

• The Richest Man in Babylon teaches timeless principles of saving, disciplined investing, risk control, and patience. When applied to the Indian market through SIPs, diversification, and long-term thinking, these lessons help young learners build strong financial habits, avoid common mistakes, and achieve sustainable wealth over time through consistency and informed decision-making.

Silver Suffers Its Worst Single-Day Fall Since 2021, Sharply Retreating From Record Highs* - 30.12.2025

 Aetram Research *SPECIAL REPORT*

*Silver Suffers Its Worst Single-Day Fall Since 2021, Sharply Retreating From Record Highs* - 30.12.2025

*What Happened in Silver*
* Silver witnessed its sharpest single-day decline since 2021 after hitting a record high near $83.62 per ounce. The sudden correction was driven by aggressive profit booking following an extended rally, easing geopolitical risk sentiment, and expectations around upcoming US Federal Reserve cues. Reduced safe-haven demand triggered a fast pullback, especially from leveraged positions.

*Key Triggers Behind the Fall*
* Silver rallied too far, too fast, leading to exhaustion near record highs
* Market perception of easing geopolitical risks, including Ukraine-related developments
* Temporary shift away from safe-haven assets
* Traders booked profits ahead of US Fed meeting minutes
* Elevated volatility amplified downside moves

*Structural Trend View (Big Picture)*
* Despite the sharp fall, silver remains in a long-term bullish structure. Higher highs and higher lows on major timeframes are still intact. The recent decline appears corrective in nature rather than a trend reversal. Such sharp pullbacks are common in strong commodity bull cycles and often reset momentum for the next leg.

*How Long-Term Investors Should Read This Move*
* Long-term investors should treat this decline as a volatility-driven correction, not as a signal to exit structurally strong positions. Silver’s long-term drivers—industrial demand, green energy usage, inflation hedging, and currency debasement themes—remain intact.

This correction helps remove speculative excess and creates healthier conditions for accumulation.

*Long-Term Investment Approach for Silver*

*Accumulation Strategy*
* Avoid panic reactions after sharp single-day falls
* Accumulate gradually during corrective phases rather than chasing highs
* Focus on staggered buying instead of lump-sum deployment

*Risk Management Perspective*
* Expect higher volatility compared to gold
* Allocate silver as a satellite asset, not an oversized core holding
* Maintain a long-term horizon of multiple years

*Allocation View*
* Ideal for investors seeking diversification beyond equities and bonds
* Suitable as a hedge against inflation and currency risk
* Best positioned as part of a diversified commodity basket

*What to Watch Going Forward*
* Stability above major long-term support zones
* US dollar and bond yield direction
* Industrial demand signals, especially from green energy and electronics
* Central bank policy cues and global liquidity conditions

*Key Message for Long-Term Investors*
* Sharp corrections after record highs are normal in secular bull markets. Silver’s current move reflects profit booking and sentiment adjustment, not a breakdown of fundamentals. Long-term investors should remain disciplined, patient, and focused on gradual accumulation during volatility rather than reacting emotionally to short-term price shocks.

*Final Takeaway*
* Silver’s worst single-day fall since 2021 is a reminder of its volatile nature—but also of the opportunities such volatility creates. For long-term investors, this phase is better viewed as a reset and accumulation window, not as an exit signal, provided the broader macro and structural trends remain supportive.

What is India VIX?*

 Aetram Research India : *Knowledge Corner - India Vix* 



*Simple Structure to Analyse India VIX* 

*1. What is India VIX?*
* India VIX shows how much movement traders expect in NIFTY over the next 30 days.
* High VIX means fear and big swings. Low VIX means comfort and small moves.
   Example:
   If India VIX is near 10, markets expect calm trading. If it jumps to 20, sharp moves are expected.

*2. Why India VIX is Important*
   India VIX helps traders understand market risk before taking trades.
   It helps in choosing the right option strategy and position size.
   Example:
   Selling options when VIX is very high can be risky due to sudden spikes.

*3. Key India VIX Zones (Very Easy Rule)*

*VIX below 12 – Calm Zone*
Market mood: Comfortable and stable
Best use: Option selling strategies
Example:
India VIX at 10.5 → NIFTY moves slowly → Option sellers benefit from time decay.

*VIX between 12 and 18 – Normal Zone*
Market mood: Balanced
Best use: Limited-risk strategies
Example:
India VIX at 15 → NIFTY shows healthy swings → Use spreads, not naked selling.

*VIX above 18 – Fear Zone*
Market mood: Nervous
Best use: Option buying or hedged trades
Example:
India VIX at 22 → Big intraday swings → Buyers gain as premiums expand.

*4. Relationship Between NIFTY and India VIX*

*Normally:*
NIFTY goes up → VIX comes down
NIFTY goes down → VIX goes up

*Warning Signal:*
If NIFTY rises but VIX also rises, market may turn volatile soon.
Example:
NIFTY near resistance and VIX rising → Risk of sharp reversal increases.

*5. Trend of India VIX Matters More Than Value*

*Falling VIX*
Volatility shrinking, trends become smooth
Example:
VIX falls from 14 to 11 → Market becomes range-bound and calm.

*Rising VIX*
Volatility expanding, sharp moves possible
Example:
VIX rises from 12 to 16 → Expect faster moves and wider candles.


*6. Event-Based Behaviour of India VIX*

* Before major events (Budget, RBI policy)
* VIX usually rises due to uncertainty.

*After the event*
VIX falls sharply.
Example:
Before Budget, VIX at 18 → After Budget, VIX drops to 13.

*8. Common Mistake to Avoid*

India VIX does not tell market direction.
It only tells how fast and how wide the market may move.
Example:
High VIX does not always mean market will fall.

*Final Conclusion*
* India VIX is a risk indicator, not a buy or sell signal.
* Low VIX means comfort but hidden risk.
* High VIX means fear but opportunity for prepared traders.

BOOK : *The Intelligent Investor* – Complete Summary : *Author: Benjamin Graham*

 Knowledge Corner : "*Buy Right, Stay Calm, Win Big: Lessons from The Intelligent Investor*"

BOOK : *The Intelligent Investor* – Complete Summary  : *Author: Benjamin Graham*



*Core Philosophy*
* Investing means buying a business, not trading a stock
* Long-term returns come from discipline, patience, and rational thinking
* Market predictions are unreliable; process matters more than forecasts

*Investment vs Speculation*
* Investment requires analysis, safety of capital, and reasonable return
* Anything lacking safety and analysis is speculation
* Profitable speculation is still speculation

*Mr. Market Concept*
* Market behaves emotionally, offering irrational prices daily
* Do not follow market moods; use them
* Buy from fear, sell to optimism

*Margin of Safety (Most Important Rule)*
* Buy stocks significantly below intrinsic value
* Margin of safety protects from errors and market shocks
* No margin of safety = high risk

*Defensive Investor (Most People)*
* Focus on capital protection, not beating the market
* Prefer index funds and strong large-cap companies
* Maintain diversification and simplicity

*Enterprising Investor (Advanced)*
* Actively search for undervalued opportunities
* Invest in unpopular or neglected stocks
* Requires time, knowledge, and emotional control

*Stock Selection Principles*
* Strong balance sheet and low debt
* Stable earnings history
* Reasonable price-to-earnings ratio
* Business with long-term durability

*Price vs Value*
* Market price fluctuates daily; value changes slowly
* Price reflects emotion; value reflects fundamentals
* Buy value when price is low

*Market Volatility*
* Volatility is opportunity, not risk
* Real risk is permanent capital loss
* Ignore short-term market noise

*Portfolio Strategy*
* Always hold both equities and bonds
* Avoid 100% equity exposure
* Adjust allocation conservatively during extremes

*Dividends & Compounding*
* Dividends provide stability and income
* Reinvestment accelerates wealth creation
* Compounding works best over long periods

*Common Investor Mistakes*
* Chasing hot stocks and trends
* Overconfidence and emotional decisions
* Ignoring valuation and risk

*Psychological Discipline*
* Investor’s biggest enemy is himself
* Control emotions to control outcomes
* Consistency beats brilliance

*Ultimate Takeaway*
* Focus on risk control, not return maximization
* Buy with margin of safety
* Stay rational when others panic

*One-Line Essence*
* Successful investing is disciplined, patient ownership of undervalued businesses